what if planes were electric what if instead of long runways miles away from the city you had small docks that allowed for a new breed of planes to take off and land vertically. what if we cut down the pollution from burning unnecessary. fuel could planes go even faster than they do today what if somebody did to the aerospace industry what Tesla did to cars what does the future hold for air transport we're not quite sure so we began to research this issue where are we
now as you are enjoying this piece right now there are over 16,000 planes in the air flying from point A to point B in total there are just under 40,000 airplanes in the world licensed to fly over 10 million people find themselves in a plane per day and as of 2017 we passed the 4 billion passengers per year mark and that number is expected to double to over 8 billion passengers by 2037. as more and more people enter the middle class throughout the world.
so is it worth disrupting this industry
the aviation industry generated eight hundred and twenty five billion dollars in revenue in 2018 and is on track to do over 1 trillion by 2025 so the PI is definitely big enough to have investors interested where can the disruption take place this part is pretty straightforward you need to dramatically change one of three things one the cost per person 2 the speed of the plane making trips faster which as a result leads to more trips in the same time span or 3 the volume of passengers per trip a Boeing 747 takes up to 170 metric tons of fuel which adds a tremendous amount of weight to the plane if you were to fill it up that's why most planes have just enough fuel to make the trip plus a slight safety net to fill a jumbo jet up it would cost between 200,000 and 400,000 dollars depending on the size and price in the market for jet fuel the advantage of traditional fuel is it's widely available for now and as the plane keeps on flying it's burning off fuel and the plane becomes lighter a problem that's not going to be solved with electric planes since you still have to carry the empty batteries with you but electricity is cheaper than even the cheapest fuel with renewables growing in popularity. it's obvious that at some point there'll be a switch from traditional fuel to electric. we're seeing that happening with cars so why not with planes the problem lies in the range of the aircraft we haven't solved long range just yet
biggest players
when it comes to the large plane market we're dealing with a duopoly Boeing and Airbus control over 99% of the market and they want to keep it that way boeing has been struggling lately in the news that two of their new planes crashed in less than six months of each other but they're still doing well because there aren't many alternatives. Boeing alone has spent over a quarter of a billion dollars in lobbying when smaller airliners get to a point where they have a shot at competing with them they simply acquire the company like what happened last year with Canadian company Bombardier. they're doing really well and they have no interest in changing if it ain't broke don't fix it these companies prefer to incrementally improve their products over time because new designs and technologies can be extremely expensive and risky. the cost per plane is in the hundreds of millions so companies make an effort to stretch the lifespan of each airliner as much as possible. thus slowing down innovation even more however this doesn't mean they don't have their eyes on an electric future both companies have acquired and funded startups in the electric space companies like Zune Amero and the air race eeep reject but even these are not massive shifts from the traditional way planes look and operate think of Boeing and Airbus like the big car manufacturers of GM Volkswagen and Toyota they've got a model that's working well for them so they don't keep competing in the new space unless a company like Tesla shows up and forces them to shift focus in order to remain competitive.
potential
the future lies in supersonic VTOL electric planes VTOL stands for vertical takeoff and landing modern-day planes have a limiting design carry around a lot of useless weight and 25 years from now planes will look quite differently than we're used to new startups as well as old money are pushing the boundaries of speed and design electric airplanes could rise higher than traditional planes because they do not need oxygen for combustion purposes/ this also reduces the air friction improving the overall speed of the airplane/ a supersonic electric plane could theoretically cut travel time by at least a factor two/ electric planes also have a higher power to body weight ratio than combustion engines meaning they would be able to vertically takeoff and land with a smaller engine than a traditional plane would. this in turn would allow for the removal of several parts which are no longer needed as long as you would simply rotate the engine the truth is electric planes are already here but they're not there yet in a very similar way of how the first electric cars were presented they were limited ugly and more of a passion project than a viable business. electric planes have found success anywhere short range is enough like in training dropping the cost per flight down by a factor of 10
the biggest problem keeping planes from going completely electric lies in the batteries
although battery technology is getting better and better at an incredible pace we're still at least a decade away from a viable option then there's the problem of space and storage as we mentioned earlier unlike in the case of traditional fuel you still have to carry the batteries with you even when there's no longer any juice in them another challenge would be to make them at least as safe as previous generations. electric planes also make sense from a climate change perspective since planes leave one of the largest carbon footprints in the world. not to mention that exactly like with electric cars the entire industries behavior would need to change for cars we need a network of superchargers and the project to go mainstream with a vertical takeoff and landing electric planes we would need to make more modifications to the way we think about airports and airspace.
lastly at least in the u.s. supersonic airplanes are currently illegal over land mass because of the sonic boom they produce but we've already made great progress on that front with new supersonic planes generating as much noise as you slamming a car door
conclusion
we've still got a long way to go until all planes go electric but money is pouring it with change there's a lot of money on the table and we'll see new players battle the old Titans for a piece of it former Air France CEO Alexander's union says that commercial airplanes could become a reality in the next 15 years running with the same model as with the electric car will first
now as you are enjoying this piece right now there are over 16,000 planes in the air flying from point A to point B in total there are just under 40,000 airplanes in the world licensed to fly over 10 million people find themselves in a plane per day and as of 2017 we passed the 4 billion passengers per year mark and that number is expected to double to over 8 billion passengers by 2037. as more and more people enter the middle class throughout the world.
so is it worth disrupting this industry
the aviation industry generated eight hundred and twenty five billion dollars in revenue in 2018 and is on track to do over 1 trillion by 2025 so the PI is definitely big enough to have investors interested where can the disruption take place this part is pretty straightforward you need to dramatically change one of three things one the cost per person 2 the speed of the plane making trips faster which as a result leads to more trips in the same time span or 3 the volume of passengers per trip a Boeing 747 takes up to 170 metric tons of fuel which adds a tremendous amount of weight to the plane if you were to fill it up that's why most planes have just enough fuel to make the trip plus a slight safety net to fill a jumbo jet up it would cost between 200,000 and 400,000 dollars depending on the size and price in the market for jet fuel the advantage of traditional fuel is it's widely available for now and as the plane keeps on flying it's burning off fuel and the plane becomes lighter a problem that's not going to be solved with electric planes since you still have to carry the empty batteries with you but electricity is cheaper than even the cheapest fuel with renewables growing in popularity. it's obvious that at some point there'll be a switch from traditional fuel to electric. we're seeing that happening with cars so why not with planes the problem lies in the range of the aircraft we haven't solved long range just yet
biggest players
when it comes to the large plane market we're dealing with a duopoly Boeing and Airbus control over 99% of the market and they want to keep it that way boeing has been struggling lately in the news that two of their new planes crashed in less than six months of each other but they're still doing well because there aren't many alternatives. Boeing alone has spent over a quarter of a billion dollars in lobbying when smaller airliners get to a point where they have a shot at competing with them they simply acquire the company like what happened last year with Canadian company Bombardier. they're doing really well and they have no interest in changing if it ain't broke don't fix it these companies prefer to incrementally improve their products over time because new designs and technologies can be extremely expensive and risky. the cost per plane is in the hundreds of millions so companies make an effort to stretch the lifespan of each airliner as much as possible. thus slowing down innovation even more however this doesn't mean they don't have their eyes on an electric future both companies have acquired and funded startups in the electric space companies like Zune Amero and the air race eeep reject but even these are not massive shifts from the traditional way planes look and operate think of Boeing and Airbus like the big car manufacturers of GM Volkswagen and Toyota they've got a model that's working well for them so they don't keep competing in the new space unless a company like Tesla shows up and forces them to shift focus in order to remain competitive.
potential
the future lies in supersonic VTOL electric planes VTOL stands for vertical takeoff and landing modern-day planes have a limiting design carry around a lot of useless weight and 25 years from now planes will look quite differently than we're used to new startups as well as old money are pushing the boundaries of speed and design electric airplanes could rise higher than traditional planes because they do not need oxygen for combustion purposes/ this also reduces the air friction improving the overall speed of the airplane/ a supersonic electric plane could theoretically cut travel time by at least a factor two/ electric planes also have a higher power to body weight ratio than combustion engines meaning they would be able to vertically takeoff and land with a smaller engine than a traditional plane would. this in turn would allow for the removal of several parts which are no longer needed as long as you would simply rotate the engine the truth is electric planes are already here but they're not there yet in a very similar way of how the first electric cars were presented they were limited ugly and more of a passion project than a viable business. electric planes have found success anywhere short range is enough like in training dropping the cost per flight down by a factor of 10
the biggest problem keeping planes from going completely electric lies in the batteries
although battery technology is getting better and better at an incredible pace we're still at least a decade away from a viable option then there's the problem of space and storage as we mentioned earlier unlike in the case of traditional fuel you still have to carry the batteries with you even when there's no longer any juice in them another challenge would be to make them at least as safe as previous generations. electric planes also make sense from a climate change perspective since planes leave one of the largest carbon footprints in the world. not to mention that exactly like with electric cars the entire industries behavior would need to change for cars we need a network of superchargers and the project to go mainstream with a vertical takeoff and landing electric planes we would need to make more modifications to the way we think about airports and airspace.
lastly at least in the u.s. supersonic airplanes are currently illegal over land mass because of the sonic boom they produce but we've already made great progress on that front with new supersonic planes generating as much noise as you slamming a car door
conclusion
we've still got a long way to go until all planes go electric but money is pouring it with change there's a lot of money on the table and we'll see new players battle the old Titans for a piece of it former Air France CEO Alexander's union says that commercial airplanes could become a reality in the next 15 years running with the same model as with the electric car will first
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